The New York Times on Friday examined potential reasons for the increased fertility rate in the U.S., including changes in the real estate market. According to recent data from CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, the total fertility rate -- the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime -- increased to 2.1 children per woman in 2006, the highest number since 1961. The rise reflects increases in birth rates among women in all parts of the country and almost every demographic group except girls under age 15, which was the only decline, the Times reports.
The report found that the fertility rate among Hispanic women in 2006 was the highest with 2.96 children per woman, compared with 2.11 for non-Hispanic black women and 1.86 for non-Hispanic whites. General birth rates were highest in Republican "strongholds" -- Utah had the highest rate followed by Arizona, Idaho and Texas -- the Times reports. Birth rates were lowest in states won by Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in the 2004 presidential election -- Vermont had the lowest followed by New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts -- the Times noted. The report did not include information on religion or socioeconomic status, but researchers have associated religious affiliation and observance with increased fertility rates. A 2007 survey by the Pew Research Center found that 79% of evangelicals said they had children, compared with 73% of nonevangelical Protestants and 62 percent of those who described themselves as secular.
Demographers say it is too early to determine if the increase is a trend or to determine its causes, which might include changes in immigration, the economy and the availability of abortion. Stephanie Ventura, chief of NCHS' reproductive statistics branch, said the increase "could turn around on a dime" but added it was unusual that birth rates in 2006 increased for both teenagers and older women. In the past, a strong economy "contributed to a decline in the teenage birth rate because they saw they could get good jobs, so they put off childbirth," Ventura said, adding, "For older people, a good economy makes them say, 'We can afford to have another child.'"
Robert Engelman -- vice president for programs at the Worldwatch Institute and author of "More: Population, Nature and What Women Want" -- said the availability of housing in the U.S. might be linked to the increased fertility rates. "One reason there are so few children in Italy is that housing is so hard to come by," Engelman said, adding, "Houses are bigger in the U.S. and generally more available. That may help explain why" U.S. residents have more children.
Several population specialists said that housing is one influence on fertility and that it is difficult to ignore other variables, including income or optimism. "If you lower the cost of housing, you're going to lower the cost of raising a child," Seth Sanders, director of University of Maryland's Maryland Population Research Center, said, adding, "But if you look at how much it costs to raise a child, only one-third of the cost is housing. So my guess is that the impact is not very large."
Morris Davis, assistant professor of real estate and urban land economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Business, said the link between housing and fertility is "something a bunch of us have been thinking about," adding, "If you reduce down-payment constraints, more people can buy homes or buy bigger homes. Does that encourage them to have more kids? I would say nobody knows".
